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Say ‘Bye Bye Surplus’, Swanny

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What happens when your business is massively reliant on one customer … and that customer stops needing as much of your product?

Ask Wayne Swan:

RBA Chart Pack - March 2012

Steel production not looking good. And total production growth gently sliding.

Why might that be?

RBA Chart Pack - March 2012

House prices topped out and rolling over. Floor space sold falling.

And fixed asset investments ground to a halt:

RBA Chart Pack - March 2012

Why is all this happening?

RBA Chart Pack - March 2012

The same old story, as seen throughout the Western world, now in China too.

When the “credit” (ie, debt) needed to keep blowing up a bubble slows and falls, the end is nigh.

And without all that debt-fuelled building activity to drive “GDP growth”?

RBA Chart Pack - March 2012

Say “bye bye” to that surplus fantasy, Swanny.

Oh yes, no doubt you will loudly trumpet a forecast surplus in the May budget.

But I for one am willing to bet you that, come end June 2013, there is not a snowflake’s chance in hell of your delivering one.



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